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Anticipating & Understanding Results

The Anticipating and Understanding Results series provides timely analysis of emerging or recently announced trial results. Past publications in the series have explored the trials of male circumcision for HIV prevention, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and the Thai prime-boost vaccine efficacy trial.

*A Cascade of Hope and QuestionsA Three-Part Series
Volume one, released in July 2010 before CAPRISA 004 results were known, provided advocates with the “big picture” of how CAPRISA004  and other ongoing ARV-based prevention trials relate to one another. Volume Two focused on CAPRISA 004 results. Check back soon for volume three.

Download the
Connect the Dots table to learn what upcoming results from selected tenofovir-based prevention trials will tell us—what they won't—and when (PDF) (JPG).

Volume 2: Understanding the results of CAPRISA 004
August 2010
This document is Volume Two in AVAC’s Cascade of Hope and Questions series focused on ARV-based prevention. It provides key context for next steps regarding the development of the microbicide 1% tenofovir gel tested in CAPRSIA 004 and describes many of the issues that advocates should be monitoring and engaging with in the months to come. CAPRISA 004 is the landmark trial of the microbicide 1% tenofovir gel, the results of which were released in July 2010. It found that 1% tenofovir gel reduced HIV-negative women’s risk of HIV infection by an estimated 39 percent overall.

Volume 1: Anticipating results of ARV-based HIV prevention trials
July 2010
A new document in our Anticipating Results series, which is designed to help advocates prepare for the issues raised by impending results from different biomedical HIV prevention trials. This new document focuses on preparing for data from trials of ARV-based prevention strategies, starting with the results of CAPRISA 004—an effectiveness study of a 1% tenofovir gel microbicide—which were announced next week at (an updated version based on new data is coming shortly).

Anticipating the Results of the Phase III AIDS Vaccine Trial in Thailand
September 2009

Anticipating the Results of the Phase III AIDS Vaccine Trial in Thailand, was designed to help advocates prepare in advance for the initial announcement. The report is available in English and  Thai. AVAC will be providing an updated and expanded version of this report that includes the trial data.

Anticipating the Results of PrEP Trials: A powerful new HIV prevention tool may be on the horizon. Are we prepared?
August 2008

This report provides background on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) research, the status of current clinical trials, and issues concerning effective delivery should PrEP prove effective. It closes with a list of priority issues that need attention now from governments, global health institutions, donors, researchers, and advocates. This report is also available in Spanish.

A New Way to Protect Against HIV? Understanding the Results of Male Circumcision Studies for HIV Prevention
September 2007

This document is designed to help prevention advocates understand the ramifications of findings from studies of male circumcision for HIV prevention, and to explore the opportunities and challenges associated with implementation.

Female-Initiated HIV Prevention: What will we learn from upcoming trials?
July 2007

This document is designed to help HIV prevention advocates understand the implications of findings from two studies of female-initiated HIV prevention methods. These large-scale efficacy trials are the first of this kind to be brought through scheduled completion.

Will a pill a day prevent HIV? Anticipating the results of the tenofovir "PrEP" trials

March 2005

Research is currently taking place that could change the way we think about preventing HIV infection. Tenofovir, a drug that is now widely used in treatment of HIV and AIDS, is being tested in Africa, Asia, and the Americas for possible use as a product that HIV-negative people could take regularly to reduce their risk of HIV infection. This potential application of tenofovir is called pre-exposure prophylaxis or "PrEP." No drug has yet been licensed for PrEP. Legitimate ethical concerns raised by some advocates have led to cancellations and delays in some of the PrEP trials. On March 24, AVAC released a report, "Will a Pill a Day Prevent HIV? Anticipating the Results of the Tenofovir "PrEP" Trials," that examines the issues surrounding the tenofovir trials and makes recommendations for ensuring that trials are carried out ethically and that provisions are made for dealing with the results of the trials when they are available. The report also calls for more concerted coordination and advance planning to accelerate evaluation, licensing, and access to PrEP.

Understanding the Results of the AIDSVAX Trial
May 2003

In late February 2003, the world heard preliminary results of the first large-scale human trial of a vaccine designed to prevent HIV infection. The results for the overall trial cohort were clear and disappointing. The results for a relatively small subset of trial participants are less clear, and they have sparked controversy and require further analysis. This brochure will help you understand what we do and do not know about the experimental vaccine known as AIDSVAX. The brochure is also available in French and Spanish.

AVAC: Global Advocacy for HIV Prevention
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